Opening Pandora’s box: Using city-scale risk models to quantify the global cost of catastrophes, and the value of resilience

Opening Pandora’s box: Using city-scale risk models to quantify the global cost of catastrophes, and the value of resilience

In the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies we have developed a framework to quantify the potential damage from a Pandora’s box of all ills – a comprehensive taxonomy of catastrophes. The methodology and outputs speak directly to the value of investing in resilience. The analysis has been made possible by novel ‘Catastronomics’ techniques to analyseRead more

Welcome to the Boardroom: Have Chief Risk Officers Become Too Prominent?

Welcome to the Boardroom: Have Chief Risk Officers Become Too Prominent?

While participating in this year’s Aspen Critical Issues and Risk Forum, I had the opportunity to hear from a number of non-executive board members on the pressing challenges facing public boards. The theme of the forum addressed effective board governance during times of public scrutiny and how trust might be rebuilt. Board cultures have beenRead more

Eurobond Correlation Network: a case history

Eurobond Correlation Network: a case history

During the last two decades, the European sovereign bond market has been driven not only by the converging mechanism of its common currency, but by the centrifugal forces of trade imbalances and unequal sovereign credit capacity also. The Eurozone government bond spreads experienced “euro convergence” at the end of the 90’s in expectation of theRead more

Eurobond Correlation Network: fearing the Grexit

Eurobond Correlation Network: fearing the Grexit

Over the last five years, fears over a Greek debt and a financial contagion spreading to PIGS countries have dominated Euro Bond markets. Looking into 10 year bond price correlations across the same period, we are able to observe that, in this time, the Greek markets have already decoupled from those of other EU states.Read more

The emergent white-blood cells of the internet

The emergent white-blood cells of the internet

I attended the 27th Annual FIRST conference in Berlin recently. I have attended regularly for the last four years, and this year I noticed a couple of important things. Firstly, if you’ll forgive the pun, there was an increase in people working on cyber-risk metrics. Secondly, people were very interested in the work we doRead more

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Differentiating two cyber risks.

Differentiating two cyber risks.

Traditional insurance practice involves insulating the insurer’s operational risks from the risks they are insuring. This means that maritime shipping insurance companies don’t place their headquarters aboard ships. Those that insure floods don’t have offices in floodplains. Usually, it’s geography that allows the insurer to escape the risk, but not always. Solar storms and coronal massRead more

The fossil fuel divestment campaign: what role does it play in addressing emerging carbon risk?

The fossil fuel divestment campaign: what role does it play in addressing emerging carbon risk?

The emerging carbon risk Carbon risk is systemic in nature. Tied to the future availability of carbon assets and triggered by environmental-related risks, the risk of a carbon “bubble” collapse has the potential to cause large fossil fuel companies (coal, oil and gas) to fail. Such an impact to the carbon-intensive energy exporting countries wouldRead more

Interstate Conflict is the new top concern for Global Risks 2015

Interstate Conflict is the new top concern for Global Risks 2015

The WEF Global Risks 2015 identifies ‘interstate conflict’ as the top catastrophe threat of concern, in a new ranking order of business risks for the next decade. Managing the business risk posed by political instability and other threats is a research theme of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. Ahead of its yearly meeting inRead more

“Global Crisis” – What if lots of catastrophes happen at once?

“Global Crisis” – What if lots of catastrophes happen at once?

    BOOK REVIEW:  Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century, Geoffrey Parker, 2013, Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0-300-15323-1. What happens when lots of catastrophes happen at once? Geoffrey Parker’s book describes a period in history – the mid 17th century – when they came thick and fast, and happened everywhere.Read more

The Web of Trust in Cyber Space – Tracing systemic risk patterns

The Web of Trust in Cyber Space – Tracing systemic risk patterns

SSL/TLS is an encryption mechanism that keeps your data confidential between your browser and a webpage. This system protects your data between you and (for example) your bank. To do such things, a bank needs a certificate. That certificate can be verified easily and quickly if it is provided by a certain type of certificateRead more